Consumer prices rose 6.2% year-on-year in June, the smallest increase since early last year, as fuel and transport costs held steady for a second straight month, the statistics bureau reported Wednesday. The reading came in slightly below most private forecasts, which had clustered around 6.5%.
Officials pointed to a stable global oil price and a favourable base effect from last year’s spike as the main reasons behind the slowdown. Transport costs, which make up a significant share of the index, were flat month-on-month for the first time in over a year.
“We’re seeing the disinflation trend broaden beyond just fuel,” said a senior economist at the statistics bureau’s price monitoring unit. “Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, has also eased for three consecutive months.”
Economists said the slowdown gives the central bank more room to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at next month’s policy meeting, though food prices remain a concern in rural districts, where local supply disruptions have kept vegetable and pulse prices elevated.
The central bank’s next monetary policy statement is due in three weeks. Analysts widely expect rates to hold, with any cut unlikely before the final quarter of the year unless food inflation also cools meaningfully.
